Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Concentrations and physicochemical speciation of heavy metals in urban runoff sediment from São Gonçalo—Rio de Janeiro/Brazil     

José Antônio Baptista Neto  Carlos Marclei Arruda Rangel  Estefan Monteiro Da Fonseca  Marília Teresa Lima Do Nascimento  Ana Dalva De Oliveira Santos  Bruno Cezar Baptista Rodrigues  Gustavo Vaz De Melo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(17):1209

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Spatial characterization of the seawater upconing process in a coastal Mediterranean aquifer (Plana de Castellón,Spain): evolution and controls     

Olga García-Menéndez  Ignacio Morell  Bruno J. Ballesteros  Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa  Alejandra Renau-Llorens  Mª Vicenta Esteller 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(9):728

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Large-scale,seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops in Germany     

Stefan Klaus  Heidi Kreibich  Bruno Merz  Bernd Kuhlmann  Kai Schröter 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(18):1289

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A seasonal climate model of the atmospheres of the giant planets at the voyager encounter time: I. Saturn's stratosphere     

Bruno Bézard  Daniel Gautier 《Icarus》1985,61(2):296-310

A radiative seasonal model which incorporates a multilayer radiative transfer treatment at wave-lengths longward of 7 μm is presented and applied to Saturn's stratosphere. Opacities due to H₂-He, CH₄, C₂H₂, and C₂H₆ are included. Season-dependent insolation is shown to produce a strong hemispheric asymmetry decreasing with depth at the Voyager encounter times, and seasonal amplitudes of 30°K at the poles are predicted in the high stratosphere. The ring-modulated dependence of the insolation and the orbital eccentricity are shown to have a significant effect. Calculations agree closely with the Voyager 1 and 2 radio occultation ingress profiles recorded at 76°S and 36.5°S for CH₄/H₂ = 3.5 + 1.4/? 1.0 × 10^?3;the estimated errors include modeling systematic errors and uncertainties in the occultations profiles. The possible role of aerosols in the stratospheric heating is analyzed. The Voyager 2 egress profile recorded at 31°S cannot be reproduced by calculations. Some constraints on the C₂H₂ and C₂H₆ abundances are derived. The upper portion of the occultation profiles (p < 3mbar) can be matched for C₂H₂/H₂ = 1.0 + 1.3/?0.6 × 10^?7, C₂H₆/H₂ = 1.5 + 1.8/?0.9 × 10^?6 at 76°S and C₂H₂/H₂ = 4 + 6/?4 × 10^?8, C₂H₆/H₂ = 6 + 9/?6 × 10^?7 at 36.5°N. At the northern occultation latitude, the discrepancy with the concentrations derived from analysis of IRIS spectra by R. Courtin, D. Gautier, A. Marten, B. Bézard, and R. Hanel (1984, Astrophys. J.287) can be explained by a sharp variation of the mixing ratios of these gases with altitude in the upper stratosphere. Other interpretations are discussed.  相似文献   

Perturbations of the Kepler Problem in Global Coordinates: A Program     

Bruno Cordani  Giorgio Merlini 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2001,81(4):313-319

The present paper is a brief report of how, along the lines of a previous paper, the implementation of the program KEPLER¹, for the numerical integration of the perturbations of the Kepler problem, has been carried out.  相似文献   

Late Hercynian–Mesozoic thinning in the Alboran domain: metamorphic data from the northern Rif, Morocco     

André Michard  Bruno Goffé  Mohamed Bouybaouene  & Omar Saddiqi 《地学学报》1997,9(4):171-174

In the Alboran domain, two crustal-thickening late-orogenic extension cycles are superposed. The importance of the late Alpine thinning of the Alpujarride-Sebtide crustal section on top of the Beni Bousera peridotites is discussed here in metamorphic petrological terms. The Alpine metamorphism operated first under a HP–LT gradient, and reached the eclogite facies in the Permian–Triassic phyllites, before retrogression under a high geothermal gradient. A contrasting, higher temperature metamorphism characterizes the pre-Permian section, reaching the HP-granulite facies at the bottom of the crustal section. By reference to the western European setting, the granulites relate to the Hercynian orogeny, as supported by the isotopic ages of the enclosed, armoured monazite crystals. Thus, thinning of an overthickened crust might have occurred there during the late Hercynian extension and Tethyan opening, before being reactivated during the late Oligocene.  相似文献   

Petrologische Untersuchungen an tertiären basaltischen bis phonolithischen Vulkaniten der Rhön     

Bruno Ficke 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1961,7(4):337-436

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 39 TextabbildungenDie vorliegende Arbeit wurde als Dissertation bei der Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Würzburg 1958 eingereicht.  相似文献   

Erratum     

E. Bruno  Susanna Carbonin  G. Molin 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1982,30(1):77-77

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Die Ablenkung des Lichtes an der Sonne und die Änderung Seiner Geschwindigkeit und Wellenlänge     

Bruno Thüring 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1972,15(3):467-478

Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse der Radar-Echo-Messungen von I. I. Shapiro, welche auf eine Verringerung der Lichtgeschwindigkeit beim Vorübergang des Lichtes an der Sonne hinweisen, werden zusammen mit der Ablenkung des Lichtes und der Verschiebung seiner Spektrallinien wellentheoretisch erklärt. Es genügt hierzu die Annahme eines materiellen lichtwellentragenden Mediums mit einer Dichte unterhalb des empirischen Vakuums; das Medium muss dann radial zur Sonne eine geringe Inhomogenität besitzen, die in entsprechenden kleinen Zusatzgliedern in den Maxwellschen Gleichungen ihren Ausdruck findet.Auf protophysikalischer Grundlage aufbauend wird die Phasengleichung (22) der an der Sonne vorbeigehenden Lichtwellen unter einfachsten Annahmen abgeleitet und integriert; als Resultat ergeben sich die drei genannten Effekte in Übereinstimmung mit der Erfahrung (Gleichung (39), (44), (47)).

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Shapiro (1968) published the first results of radar-echo-observations on Venus and Mercury in the neighbourhood of upper conjunctions with the Sun; the observations indicate a decrease of the velocity of light passing the Sun. The theory of Soldner is disproved; and the general relativity is in accord with the observed facts. But not this theory alone. In this publication the deflection of light, decrease of the velocity of light, and displacement of spectral-lines are explained with the aid of a wavetheory. Hereby the assumption of a material medium carrying light-waves is sufficient, the density of which is below that of the empirical vacuum; hence, the medium must have a small inhomogeneityh radial to the Sun, and the Maxwell equations contain small additional terms (Equation (3)). They lead to the field equations (4) and (5). The protophysical fundamentals of the wave-theory (6), (8), (9), (10a) lead to the Equations (12) of wave-phase. If we assume that the behaviour of the light passing the Sun is independent (in first approximation) from the wave-form (F), the Equation (22) of wave-phase, is deduced for simple-periodic waves of light. Figure 1 outlines the slope and deflection of the ray of light by the Sun. Section 5 contains the solution of (22); and Section 6 the results. The constant of inhomogeneity =1/210^–5 (of the radius of the Sun) produces a deflection (39) of light passing the Sun. The length of waves of the light approaching the Sun is decreased to a minimum and is increasing with increasing distance from the Sun until the former value ((43) and (44)). The velocity of light approaching the Sun is decreased to a minimum and increases with increasing distance from the Sun to its former value ((46) and (47)).

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